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New Yorkers will discover who will be their new city leader this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback win, it could cement the party's current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd