A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
