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Initially, Trump seemed to embrace a strong approach on the Ukrainian conflict. After making warnings of "serious ramifications" in August if Putin continued blocking truce discussions, the former president finally enacted substantial sanctions on Russia's biggest oil companies, these major energy companies. This action substantially hindered the Russian leader's ability to finance his aggression in Ukraine.

Yet, via his latest comprehensive peace initiative for Ukraine, that was created by both nations' representatives excluding Ukraine's or EU participation, he has clearly reverted to his favorable to Russia position.

Benefiting Invasion

Trump's initiative would in practice favor Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while putting the country's political freedom in peril. Although bold statements that "The nation's sovereignty will be confirmed", large portions of the proposal in reality undermine that very autonomy. What represents a Moscow's wish would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his business background, Trump continues to consider the war as a simple border issue, as if ceding Russia a section of Ukraine's territory will please the ruler. However, Russia's invasion is not only about occupying a destroyed area of deindustrialized territory in eastern Ukraine. It is about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's apparent goal to eliminate it so it stops serves as an attractive model for the Russia's population of the accountable government that Putin's deepening dictatorship prevents them.

Territorial Giveaways

Although freezing in position the currently split Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would require Ukraine to give up the entire this eastern territory. Beyond benefiting the Russian Federation with land that its military have been unsuccessful to capture in exceeding a lengthy period of conflict, this surrender would render Ukrainian defenses dangerously undermined.

This region is the place of the nation's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the entrenched defensive positions that represent a essential barrier to enemy progress. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these defenses, giving Putin a unobstructed way to the capital should he later opt to resume the hostilities.

Defense Limitations

Then, in a move that would make additional hostilities more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would require Ukraine to diminish the scale of its armed forces from their present large number soldiers to a cap of 600,000. Importantly, the proposal imposes no similar restrictions on Russia's military.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's campaign to portray the nation's legitimate government as extremists, Trump's plan states: "Any extremist belief system and actions must be opposed and banned." Apparently to underscore this point, it requires that "The nation will hold democratic votes in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal places no obligation that Putin endanger his dictatorship by holding elections in his own country.

Defense Commitments

Admittedly, the initiative has the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade other states" and to "enshrine in legislation its policy of non-aggression towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". However considering that Putin has broken equivalent accords in the history – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to recognize the nation's borders in return for surrendering its historical nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow committed to a truce and a return of seized areas in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – for what reason should anyone trust this commitment now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external protection assurances. While the initiative threatens a "immediate unified defense action" should the Russian Federation renew its military campaign, and states that "Ukraine will receive dependable protection assurances", the details vary from unclear to concerning. The plan would not only deny Ukraine Nato membership but also preclude alliance nations from deploying troops on the nation's land, effectively precluding the reassurance force, reportedly headed by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to stop Putin from replenishing his weakened military, rearming, and reinvading.

World Concern

A separate side agreement reportedly would offer the nation with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any later "major, intentional, and ongoing aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an attack threatening the peace and security of the allied countries." This indicates a defense action. But different from a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best deterrent against renewed Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would depend on the willingness of Western powers, such as Trump, to respond with force to Putin's hostilities, a response they have {not